04 November, 2018

A useless guide to sun after the rain

The sun always shines brightly after the rain. You often hear it from gurus, religious people and in country music. It is meant to be an encouragement for optimism and hope, a belief that good eventually triumphs over evil, that things turn out well, no matter how bad they seem to be at present.
As it often happens with quixotic statements from the ignorant and uneducated, there are a few problems with this. I will take a brief look at them below to kill some time while the internet is down, and it still rains outside.

First thing that comes to mind: such a claim is evidently stupid in the case of rain during the night, cloudy sky or total eclipse. Assuming a reasonably even distribution of rain between night and day, the claim is false about 50% of the time. I am a bit generous here, because not all days are sunny. So far, not the worst percentage for the religious or uneducated but still far from what a reasonable person would consider... um, reasonable.
But let us not stop here. Rain is not always a bad thing. I hope you will not find shocking that it can be rather useful at times; rain brings water to plants, animals and humans. It clears the air. It makes a park look decent again after a festival. In an area affected by severe draught, rain means a crop that will not wither and survival for another year. The mentioning of sun soon shining brightly again under such circumstances is as considerate as saying "It will not last" at a wedding ceremony. Of course it will not last: in the best-case scenario where they live happy together, one of them will still die after some time; this is unavoidable. Just like a nice bit of rain will not quench the thirst of a desert-dry area in the long run. But this does not diminish its short-term benefits. Assuming another generous half-half division between useful and damaging rain, one can easily see the irrelevance of the statement in less than three out of four cases.
It would be unfair to the argument to hold a single-sided view and ignore the rain's damaging side. It can cause flooding, it can destroy the crops it helped to grow, and it can bring misery and death. Occasionally, it can even bring down the internet by taking down a utility pole or other equipment. But I am getting ahead of myself. The sun will evaporate away the surplus water that could threaten survival, it will bring warmth in both body and spirit. Feel free to imagine this more metaphorically, if you are so inclined, this is the best I could find; I am getting a bit hungry, too, and it is not my best state of mind for artistic constructions. Briefly: it restores the balance, it is a good thing. Just like the saying claims. However, timeliness is important, and the sun's schedule is not always matching the necessities of a small part of the world on a small planet that is only one among its many. And ours is neither the bigger (this is what I meant by small in the previous sentence), nor the more important planet, if we're being realistic. This may come as a shock to the more religious, but it does not make it less of a fact. All this means there will be times when the sun does come out a bit too early or a bit late. In one case, it cancels out the potential benefit of rain before it even gets to become too much. In the other, its sole purpose is to help you to better contemplate the disaster of your flooded house and to find your drowned loved ones and your destroyed possessions more easily. Sometimes it will be just on time, but the probability of this "perfect timing" is unrealistic considering the complex aspects of astronomy, geography, technological development and weather conditions involved. Pizza delivery is late almost of all the time, and their shop is much closer to my house than the sun is to Earth. Just saying... But even by granting a generous chunk of probability to such convenient scenarios, the overall relevance of the saying lands in the realm of a minuscule double-digit percentage, with a decimal sign between those two digits. And the first one is zero.

If there is anything to be learned from this all this, it is that the gullible favour irrelevant but easy solace to looking objectively at facts, learning from the outcome and trying to fix, prevent and improve. Another thing I learned is that the internet was down because the rain short-circuited some equipment near where I live. I hope they fix it before the sun comes out, but I will not be surprised if they do not. In the meantime, pizza? Anyone? I am not offering, I am begging.

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